da betobet： A few months ago, it appeared Southampton’s Premier League honeymoon was well and truly over. Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal cherry-picked the Saints’ flagship stars during the summer, whilst Tottenham signed the mastermind behind their eighth-place finish last season, former manager Mauricio Pochettino.
da dobrowin： Indeed, as drastic changes were forced on both roster and dugout by the financial dominance of the Premier League’s bigger sides, it was anyone’s guess how Southampton would fare this season. BBC’s Garth Crooks – an infamously poor pundit but by no means the solitary member of his school of thought – even predicted the south coast outfit would plummet out of the top flight as a result of the summer exodus.
Now however, with the new signings settled and clearly buying into Ronald Koeman’s philosophy, Southampton are stronger than ever, posing a more legitimate threat to Chelsea’s title bid than reigning champions Manchester City.
So, as the Saints lay in second place, just four points off the division’s summit, is it time the Champions League contenders – namely, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton – start taking the St. Mary’s side seriously? Or, as is often the case in the Premier League, will this fairytale rise eventually result in a subdued, disappointing end?
They say the stats don’t lie and those revealed during last night’s edition of Monday Night Football were incredibly positive from Southampton’s perspective. Based on prior Premier League campaigns, those with 22 points after ten games have a 27% chance of being crowned champions, a 56% chance of finishing in the top two, an 85% chance of finishing in the top four and just a 5% chance of falling outside of the bottom six come May-time.
Compelling stuff, but even so, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher both argued the Saints could eventually fall into that lower category for two predominant reasons.
Firstly, Southampton have been fairly fortunate with injuries so far this season, with the exception of the ever-absent Jay Rodriguez, and their form could take a nosedive when the depth of Ronald Koeman’s squad is stretched and tested – the proverbial, clichéd house-of-cards effect.
The Saints have a fantastic academy set-up and their scouts are amongst the Premier League’s best at spotting future prospects, but youngsters Matt Targett and Lloyd Isgrove have already been called upon in cameo roles this season.
Such a policy is clearly encouraged on the south coast but there will be inevitable moments when dependency on youngsters weakens Southampton’s match-day squads. It’s incredible telling that six Southampton stars have featured in the maximum 900 minutes this season; Morgan Schneiderlin, Dusan Tadic, Graziano Pelle, Nathaniel Clyne, Ryan Bertrand and Jose Fonte – in other words, the starting XI’s stand-out assets.
Wojciech Szczesny, on the other hand, is the only player to feature in every minute of Arsenal’s Premier League campaign, whilst Dejan Lovren, Simon Mignolet and Steven Gerrard are Liverpool’s only ever-present members. They were the English top flight’s second and fourth-highest spending clubs respectively this summer, and the Reds’ recruitment policy in particular focused on improving the depth and options of Brendan Rodgers’ squad.
Secondly, Southampton are yet to face any of the Premier League’s big hitters this year with the exception of Liverpool, whom they lost to at Anfield on the opening day of the season. The Saints claimed ten points off the top seven last term and were famed for their positive performances against quality opposition, but following wholesale changes in personnel and management over the summer, they’re now an entirely different side in both players and philosophy.
Whether they possess the same character in big games will come to light between now and mid-January, with Southampton facing Arsenal and Manchester United twice, in addition to Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton in their next eleven Premier League fixtures.
Arsenal, however, have already faced Everton, Spurs, Chelsea and City this term, Liverpool have taken on City, Tottenham and Everton and face Chelsea this weekend, whilst Manchester United are amid their campaign- defining patch, having come up against both Chelsea and Manchester City in the last fortnight, in addition to the Gunners after the international break.
That being said, in a Premier League climate where Gary Neville claims all defending has gone out of the window – let us not forget, two English clubs broke the 100-goal mark for the first time in the top flight last season – the Saints’ defensive dominance could rule supreme come May-time.
Even with the limited quality of their opposition thus far accepted, Southampton’s defensive record is purely phenomenal. Just five goals conceded in ten games gives them an average 0.5 goals conceded per match – twice as good as Chelsea and Manchester City’s. They’re also averaging the most tackles per game of any Premier League club, an incredible 25, have claimed the most clean sheets, 6, and faced the fewest shots on target per-game at 2.4.
Clearly, Ronald Koeman has his boys snuffing out moves before they evolve into clear-cut chances, and if they can maintain that proficient defensive form against the bigger clubs – perhaps squeezing out a few scoreless draws – they’ll stop Liverpool, Arsenal, United et al closing the points deficit.
Interestingly enough, Jose Fonte’s had three different centre-back partners already his season, Toby Alderweireld, Maya Yoshida and Florin Gardos, so perhaps the Saints’ squad depth is better than it’s given credit for.
And in my opinion, the January window could be what decides Southampton’s season. We witnessed during the summer just how efficient they are in the transfer market and although the south coast side will continually struggle to attract Europe’s bigger names, a few more gems like Dusan Tadic, Graziano Pelle or Saido Mane could improve their squad’s depth and variety enormously.
The club spent £58million this summer compared to £93million brought in from the sales of Adam Lallana, Calum Chambers, Dejan Lovren, Luke Shaw and Rickie Lambert, so there’s still some surplus to be utilised in January. Likewise, Jay Rodriguez is set to return at the end of December, further enhancing Koeman’s options going forward.
Who they can attract to St Mary’s in January however, will largely depend upon results between now and then, in addition to Southampton’s subsequent league standing. But already enjoying a healthy points cushion over Arsenal, 5, Liverpool, 8, and Manchester United, nine, a few astute additions could be all Southampton need to maintain their momentum until the end of the season.
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